Whether the United States, Japan or Britain or Russia in 2008 to 2009 house prices are falling, housing prices in China alone more than ten years at an average of over 9% rise, following the 2007 monthly average of over 5.5% after soaring in 09 years and more crazy, the second and third tier cities outside the city soared more than 30%, around the world unique.
course, nowadays even the Chinese housing prices led to excessive investment and speculation caused by the surge, its roots are still from demand in the urban process, the current line is the city's population increase investment and speculative demand maximum support crazy sweep floor, it is by the city of people from the strong demand for housing, dare emboldened speculators driven crazy in the policy sweep floor.
is true mainly because the current hot real estate speculators in the hands of capital investment and no other investment channels, it is so long as the gross domestic product (GDP) growth policy can not get rid of dependence on the real estate investment speculative demand and price-earnings ratio is too low and the savings in the stock market gains far below the case of investment property, whether or not to tighten monetary policy over the long term can not be changed in the current situation of economic structure, continue to push all the way up speculative real estate prices trend will not change, even if 2010 may be suppressed by short-term, is still hard to change the long-term trend of skyrocketing housing prices.
from the current real estate development and policy can be seen in the current economic and financial environment, housing real estate has become the economic lifeline of China, which is the first three quarters of 2009 to 7.7% GDP growth data have been confirmed. kidnapped in real estate after the local government and the banks, but also completely kidnapped Chinese economy, housing bubble of natural to become the economic bubble.
from academia to this day do not recognize the housing bubble has been agreed that the formation of asset bubbles can explain, the truth is distorted and can not be concealed forever, and the truth will eventually come to light, and many will have hope that the policy is expected to control prices in the psychological, imagine the impact of price inflation will be subject to policy control, but the current situation, in 08 -09 years of local government finances tight demand and GDP, the use of financial leverage artificial lift house prices have further pushed up prices in the cost of land, the prices will not decline has no doubt about it, in addition to the interference by the local administration brought about by the financial risks of real estate under the influence, to protect the financial stability of commercial banks in China will not be suppressed prices has become inevitable.
Although the sustainability of high prices ultimately depend on the purchasing power of people's livelihood, but by the impact of China's distribution of wealth between the rich in the hands of the excessive capital is the main short-term support of the property market from 2009 the first 10 months of the property market turnover can be seen that the housing needs of ordinary people is essentially not been released, a wealthy real estate fever is just a game chasing the property, how long the game can still end policy adjustments needed to give an answer.
whether the current government economic policy in 2010 how much expectations from the current potential market demand, external demand, the market continued to shrink the trend has been very clear, even if all trade protection does not exist, create industry is still difficult to get rid of the crisis has been without controversy, however, limited by poor people, domestic demand still can not avoid the economic uplift of necessity than food to sustain all the way to survive, water, electricity, oil, gas, and so the prices of daily necessities is the best description, real estate and never will be an exception.
also need to recognize that, since only the king for local governments to pay 20% deposit of the act provides developers with the bank the amount of days credit to boost land prices and the land department and the relevant regulatory authorities to see the consequences of turning a blind eye, the central economic conference in December limited GDP growth and financial stability of the two objectives will not be transferred policy has become inevitable to suppress prices.
the above All are rooted in the current just need to place the needs of family living, buyers from the mentality of the people of the last five years can be seen, no matter how high house prices, forced to survive as long as the demand for urgent, even if the pressure will also be large circumstances afford them crazy market, the emergence of Neets is formed in such a state of mind, which is the current and future real estate development, the only dependence, has just such a purchase to be psychological level, regardless of and then a big bubble as long as the policy can not maintain its rupture, and ultimately will be a huge demand for the siphon groups.
inevitable with all the above, house prices will not fall for the myth to continue until the day as the real estate bubble 2008 stock market bubble will burst, like no support, however, under the influence of the current values of the people, this day could have very slim hope of coming for a long time to see prices continue to rise in power is still greater than the decline in value, the Neets groups not only will not decrease, the growing trend has been formed, if buyers continue to be eating the old way to purchase support the property market, creating the three generations of a house the day house slaves will surely come.
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